PhD seminar in Finance пройдет в рамках Апрельской конференции

На 15-й апрельской конференции зародилась традиция проведения аспирантского семинара по финансам. 
Мы выслушали пожелания участников и гостей, приняли к сведению и снова сделали семинар. О том, каким он будет - читайте ниже.

В рамках 16-й апрельской конференции PhD семинар состоится уже во второй раз. В этом году семинар пройдет при поддержке Международной лаборатории количественных финансов и ее руководителя - Юрия Михайловича Кабанова.

Семинар состоится 10 апреля 2015 года по адресу: Москва, ул. Мясницкая, 20. ауд. 224
Начало в 10.00 

Как это было в том году

Семинар откроет почетный доклад профессора из университета Болоньи Элеттра Альярди 

Ambiguity and Corporate Finance

Abstract
Corporate finance theory has recently started considering common personality traits of managers, behavioural biases, investors’ sentiment in modeling the complex decision-making processes in corporations. For example, excessive optimism and overconfidence have been described as frequently observed managers’ behaviours, since the survey evidence by Graham and Harvey (2001). Decision-makers who tend to be overconfident about their abilities overestimate those abilities. Those who are overconfident about their knowledge (i.e., overconfidence in the sense of “miscalibration”, see Hackbarth, 2009) tend to establish excessively narrow confidence intervals. Other examples of biases concern unrealistic optimism, involving overestimating the probabilities of favourable events and underestimating the probabilities of unfavorable events, and “mental accounting” (Thaler, 1980), due to which decision-makers set reference points for the accounts that determine gains and losses (leading eventually to “disposition effects”, Shefrin and Statman, 1985). Extrapolation biases or confirmation biases lead people, in the former case, tooverreact and develop unwarranted forecasts that recent changes will continue into the future, or, in the latter case, to overweight information confirming their prior views (Shefrin, 2009, page 12).This is to say that there may be “mistakes” that managers make because of cognitive imperfections and emotional influences, which add up to other behavioural errors by investors, too. As a result, “judgements may be based on feelings rather than underlying fundamentals” (Shefrin, 2009). These errors can create a wedge between fundamental values and market prices and may determine important implications for the practice of corporate finance.Such distortions seem to be further amplified when financial markets are abnormally uncertain. In times of economic turbulence and haunting fear, like that brought on by the recent recession and the financial catastrophe that erupted in August 2007, new forms of uncertainty become truly relevant in financial strategies. In particular, ignorance and ambiguity attitudes influence the valuation processes by the managers and the investors. A recurrent issue concerns the omission of incalculable risk and the impact of investors’ sentiment and ambiguity issues on managers’ “cognitive assessment” (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979) of option values and investment/financing opportunities. Under uncertainty, decision-makers are not sure about the likelihood of the states of nature and their valuation of option payoffs are subject to vagueness, behavioural biases and partial ignorance. This brings ambiguity and ambiguity attitudes into play.

Среди прочих участников PhD семинара этого года -  аспиранты из разных уголков мира: из Италии, Индии, Украины, Германии и России. Они предложат вниманию слушателей свои доклады на самые разные финансовые темы. 

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