119049 Москва, Шаболовка 26,
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Ивашковская Ирина Васильевна —
руководитель Школы финансов, ординарный профессор НИУ ВШЭ,
доктор экономических наук, заслуженный работник высшей школы РФ
Лукашова Ольга Александровна —
Мечель Валерия Викторовна —
Юшкин Алексей Александрович —
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Журнал "Корпоративные финансы"
Importance The article considers the features of terrorist attacks, which have an impact on stock indices.It analyzes 117 terrorist attacks committed in different countries within 1988–2016. Objectives The research assesses how terrorist attacks influence stock index trends. It will enable market agents make better decisions and avoid excessive losses, reduce negative reaction of the market in general, and helpthe national financial system minimize the adverse consequences of terrorist attacks. Methods We employ historical-logical, graphical, statistical methods and a comparative analysis to describean impact of different aspects of terrorist attacks on the dynamics of stock indices. We also systematize analytical information in this area. Results The findings show that the impact of terrorist attacks on stock index dynamics depends on various factors, i.e. the number of victims, level of country’s economic development, day of terrorist attack, etc. We found out that the market trend before a terrorist attack had a significant influence on stock index movement after the attack.Terrorist attacks influence industries in a different way. Conclusions and Relevance Terrorist attacks mostly have a dramatic impact on the dynamics of stock indices. However, the influence is often insignificant and impermanent. Therefore, investors should refrain from ill-judged financial decisions to avoid losses. The findings may be useful for investors, market makers and other market participants.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) standards are generally accepted by 46 countries in the world (28 jurisdictions). However, these countries differ in terms of details of standards’ implementation, i.e. national discretions take place. In 2012 the Basel Committee launched Regulatory Compliance Assessment Program (RCAP) to assure that all member states operate according to rules at least not softer than the original ones. Standards’ unification across countries results in need for less developed countries to adopt standards faster and in a more stringent form. One may foresee financial instability exacerbation as an outcome of such policy.
That is why paper objective is to demonstrate that standards’ implementation (RCAP) score is an implicit product of country’s macroeconomic and financial system development. For example, higher share of foreign banks and higher unemployment are strongly associated with countries that have regulation significantly different from the Basel original ones (having low compliance scores finally). This is exactly why standards should be differentiated by countries. Key message of the paper is that to promote financial stability regulator should target natural heterogeneity of risk management and risk regulation instead of that appealing artificial homogeneity (of which RCAP is one the examples).
Russian stakeholders of joint stock companies, which shares are not traded on a stock exchange, and limited liability companies need the effective instruments which enable them to detect the facts of financial statement fraud quickly because the financial statement remains the main source of information about the companies’ performance for them. Although Institute of Auditors is one of the most reliable tools which identify financial statement manipulations, the costs, connected with audit, are too high and, and as a result, stakeholders have to look for other instruments to distinguish fraudsters, which make an attempt to overestimate or underestimate net assets and financial results, from non-fraudsters. Mathematical model of the American researcher Messod Beneish can be considered as an example of such tools. The general purpose of this paper is to identify whether it is possible, basing on the Beneish model, to create a new one, which enables to distinguish fraudulent from non-fraudulent financial statements reporting in Russia, and determine the accuracy level of fraud status forecasts made by using this model. In our research we are going to concentrate on identification of companies, which overestimate net assets and financial results. Tо obtain the information on the financial ratios included in the model we use financial reports of Russian both non-traded joint stock companies and limited liability firms. The conclusion can also be drawn that it is possible to develop the fraud detection probit model and linear model (integrated M-score index), which enabled stakeholders to identify fraud status correctly in 83% and 60 % respectively. Developing the model we include extra parameters, connected with growth rate of other income to sales ratio and an accounting policy of the company. It was found that fraud risk increases if the company chooses accounting policy according to which administrative costs are charged to core product expenses.
The following research is dedicated to the analysis of political events’ impact on price dynamics of Russian stock market financial assets. In recent times, in line with the sharpening of internal and external political clashes, such events significantly affect the country’s financial system. However, this issue is insufficiently considered on Russian market. Constructed econometric GARCH models allowed unambiguously characterizing the impact of political events on return and volatility of financial assets. Moreover, the effects of leverage and clusterization were also assessed. The provided research discloses the impact of political events on the market as a whole as well as on separate industries. It was demonstrated that the obtained results are similar to the ones from other developing markets, however, the particularity of Russian stock market was also revealed. As the obtained results disclose the peculiarities of price formation on Russian market, they will be useful for domestic and foreign investors, operating on Russian stock market, other market participants and specialists in financial science. Analysis of a wider range of political events is a considerable advantage of the present research in comparison with the other papers that cover the Russian market. As a result, the market reaction to such events’ manifestation was studied more thoroughly.
Our paper offers analysis of tendencies and determinants of development of local currency corporate bond markets in the period from 2006 to 2015. We consider a wide range of macroeconomic and institutional factors for 15 bond markets. The sample consists of 600 country-quarter observations. Multifactor linear regression models and the generalized method of moments are applied for the balanced panel data. Our analyses reveals that inflation and its stability, exchange rate, and market capitalization have a significant influence on the share of local currency bonds. Financial and macroeconomic instability stimulates the growth of local currency bond markets.
Национальный исследовательский университет – Высшая школа экономики (Москва) на протяжении 19 лет занимается исследованием лизингового рынка России. В статье представлены подготовленные на основе авторского обследования лизингового рынка его динамика по стоимости новых заключенных договоров и портфелей лизингодателей, структура российского лизингового рынка по важнейшим отраслям таким как авиализинг, лизинг машиностроительного оборудования, железнодорожного состава, автолизинг, лизинг недвижимости и др., а также региональная структура лизинга. Статья содержит расчеты автора трех вариантов левериджа в лизинге на основе разработанной автором методологии. В статье представлена регрессионная модель, определяющая влияние четырех факторов на стоимость договоров лизинга недвижимости по 118 сделкам, выявленных автором.