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Head of Corporate Finance Research Center, Dr., tenured professor
This paper determines the optimal volume of international currency reserves of the Bank of Russia to prevent harmful fluctuations of the Russian ruble exchange rate causing a threat to financial stability.
We create a system of models, taking into account the linkage between the dynamics of the exchange rate and the behavior of economic agents – households, non-financial industries and banks. The evaluation includes the initial effects of stress, both in the internal foreign exchange market and in the global oil market. We also shed some light on the effects of the spread of these shocks through changes in the demand for currency, from economic agents and its consequences for the ruble exchange rate. The most important task in this study is the development of an iterative approach for stress testing the banking system, in the situation of excessive volatility in the internal foreign exchange market. The stress testing procedure considers the “fire sales” effect for the securities of banks, which means that these securities can be sold if a bank faces a liquidity or capital shortage, due to an imbalance of currency assets and liabilities.
The results of the stress testing allows us to conclude that, with the occurrence of the most severe stress and the immediate provisions of currency liquidity by the Bank of Russia, the current volume of international reserves will be sufficient to eliminate its consequences. However, in case of late provisions of currency liquidity, the volume of highly liquid reserves will not be enough, and the Bank of Russia will have to sell the significant volume of foreign government securities. It can lead to a devaluation of these securities.
In this connection, the Bank of Russia should change the structure of the currency international reserves in favor of highly liquid assets, by reducing the share of securities and increasing the share of short-term deposits in foreign banks with high credit ratings. As for the volume of international currency reserves for Russia (including less liquid components), it is sufficient to overcome the maximum possible stress in the foreign exchange market and to subsequently maintain the solvency of the Russian economy.
The chapter reveals the problems of assessing and managing interest rate risk of a commercial bank.The chapter reveals the problems of assessing and managing interest rate risk of a commercial bank.The chapter reveals the problems of assessing and managing interest rate risk of a commercial bank.
This paper identifies and analyzes the key factors of the sectoral structure of ownership, the effect of the CEO and competition between owners at the sub-sectoral level and the size of the business. Based on an example of the manufacturing and construction sectors we show a positive effect on the company's financial stability of the share ownership of the CEO (in comparison with average sectoral share). We also show that in the case of a more uniform distribution of property between the owners, a positive effect is achieved in terms of the stability of the company. Thus, companies with a group of ownerfounders are the most favorable structure for the formation of the corporate governance system in Russia.
The paper illustrates how a Bayesian approach to yield fitting can be implemented in a non-parametric framework with automatic smoothing inferred from the data. It also briefly illustrates the advantages of such an an approach using real data.
The paper uses an infinite dimensional (functional space) approach to inverse problems. Numerical computations are carried out using a Markov Chain Monte-Carlo algorithm with several tweaks to ensure good performance. The model explicitly uses bid-ask spreads to allow for observation errors and provides automatic smoothing based on them.
A non-parametric framework allows to capture complex shapes of zero-coupon yield curves typical for emerging markets. Bayesian approach allows to assess the precision of estimates, which is crucial for some applications. Examples of estimation results are reported for three different bond markets: liquid (German), medium liquidity (Chinese) and illiquid (Russian).
The result shows that infinite-dimensional Bayesian approach to term structure estimation is feasible. Market practitioners could use this approach to gain more insight into interest rates term structure. For example, they could now be able to complement their non-parametric term structure estimates with Bayesian confidence intervals, which would allow them to assess statistical significance of their results.
The model does not require parameter tuning during estimation. It has its own parameters, but they are to be selected during model setup.
This article is devoted to the creation of intelligent modelling tools for decision support in the evaluation of intellectual projects submitted for financing, as based on qualitatively defined characteristics. The economic and mathematical models that form the basis of the toolkit are constructed using the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic, which allows for the description of poorly structured knowledge of specialists, as well as their application in solving questions about the extent of the impact of the proposed projects on the environment. The authors classify investment projects according to the degree of impact on the environment, the environmental criteria required by the investor for the evaluation of investment projects, and the formal formulation of the problem of evaluation of investment projects when taking into account the environmental factor. The toolkit was created based on the concept of intellectualization, where economic and mathematical models for the evaluation of investment projects are programmatically implemented via the tools and functions available in the MATLAB package.
We study alternative arbitrage strategies for stocks of Russian companies and the corresponding depositary receipts issued in European exchanges (‘mirror trades’). We provide evidence for significant arbitrage opportunities in Russia, and the potential returns are higher when the depository receipts are underpriced relative to stocks on the domestic market. Such asymmetry in arbitrage returns may be a consequence of money expatriation from Russia using these ‘mirror trades’ even when they are unprofitable, creating further mispricing. We also show that the long-short ‘buy-and-hold’ strategies, although being risky, generate returns which are about twice as high as the returns to the conversion strategies. Although the arbitrage returns have declined over time, they are still positive and generally higher than the market returns. Low liquidity of Russian depositary receipts on European exchanges is a significant barrier to arbitrage.
The paper examines how the type of ownership affects the efficiency of Russian banks. Using bank-quarter data for selected banks in the period 2004–2015, we combine stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) methodology with an intermediary approach to assess both profit and cost efficiency scores. Our key findings show that foreign-owned banks are the most profit efficient, and state-owned banks efficiently manage costs compared to other banks. These results are robust when we consider these banks in terms of risk preferences and specialization.
Researchers have long tried to define the impact of corporate diversification on firm value. Academic papers mainly concentrate on the effects of corporate diversification in mature markets while its consequences in emerging capital markets are less explored. This article presents the results of an empirical analysis of corporate diversification strategies of a sample of companies from BRIC countries that expanded via acquisitions during 2000–2013. We contribute to the existing literature by examining the effects of corporate diversification on firm value during the pre- and post-crisis periods. In line with other studies, we distinguish between related and unrelated diversification and in contrast to them we single out and separately analyze horizontal, conglomerate and vertical acquisitions. Based on a sample of 319 deals initiated by companies from BRIC countries, we found positive (3.32% and 9.01%) and statistically significant cumulative abnormal returns for conglomerate acquisitions during the pre- and post-crisis periods, correspondingly. We also found that the market reacts positively and statistically significant to the announcements of horizontal and vertical integration only during the pre-crisis period.
In recent years corporate international diversification has become a widely used growth strategy for companies from both developed and emerging markets. Nevertheless, academic papers provide contradictory results on whether the influence of international diversification on firm performance is positive or negative. This chapter presents the results of an empirical analysis of corporate international diversification – performance relationship on a sample of companies from BRIC countries, which expanded geographically in 2005-2015. We contribute to the existing literature by applying a new methodology to identify the performance effects of corporate international diversification based on an economic profit measure. The results indicate that there is a non-linear relationship between the degree of international diversification and economics profit spread. Additionally, for BRIC companies international diversification on average does not have a significant impact on expected long term performance, measured by Tobin’s Q.
In developing economies, which rely considerably on the dollar and euro, changes in the currency structure of bank deposits may be strategic and may work as an additional market discipline mechanism. This study sheds light on this currency shifts mechanism in the Russian market for personal deposits. Using data on 900 banks for 2005–2015, we show that less risky banks demonstrate higher growth in the share of deposits denominated in foreign currency (FX), even when the exchange rate volatility component is extracted. The shifts are supported by the quantity-based mechanism as more reliable banks enjoy higher FX deposit growth.
We analyze whether bank familiarity affects depositor behavior during financial crisis. Familiarity is measured by regional or local cues in the bank’s name. Depositor behavior is measured by the depositor’s sensitivity to observable bank risk (depositor discipline). Using 2001–2010 bank-level and region-level data for Russia, we find that depositors of familiar banks become less sensitive to bank risk during a financial crisis relative to depositors of unfamiliar banks. To validate that our results stem from a flight to familiarity during crisis and not from implicit guarantees from regional governments, we split our sample along the lines of regional affinity and trust in local governments. The flight to familiarity effect is strongly confirmed in the subsample of regions with strong regional affinity, while the effect is absent in the subsample of regions with more trust in regional and local governments, lending support to the thesis that our results are driven by a flight to familiarity rather than by implicit guarantees.
We analyze whether bank familiarity affects depositor behavior during financial crisis. Familiarity is measured by regional or local cues in the bank's name. Depositor behavior is measured by the depositor's sensitivity to observable bank risk (depositor discipline). Using 2001-2010 bank-level and region-level data for Russia, we find that depositors of familiar banks become less sensitive to bank risk during a financial crisis relative to depositors of unfamiliar banks. To validate that our results stem from a flight to familiarity during crisis and not from implicit guarantees from regional governments, we split our sample along the lines of regional affinity and trust in local governments. The flight to familiarity effect is strongly confirmed in the subsample of regions with strong regional affinity, while the effect is absent in the subsample of regions with more trust in regional and local governments, lending support to the thesis that our results are driven by a flight to familiarity rather than by implicit guarantees.
The knowledge economy has come a long way before becoming one of the fundamental concepts in scientific and political discourse. The World Bank and the OECD analyze the level of development of the knowledge economy at the global level. However, the transformation of the economy at the regional level is also very important, largely because of the general tendency towards regionalization. This issue is particularly acute for emerging and post-communist countries (including Russia), which are in the process of transition to a market economy. Grounding on the World Bank’s Knowledge Economy Index indicators, the authors developed the Russian Regional Knowledge Economy Index (Russian RKEI). The authors allocated the leading and lagging groups of regions regarding the knowledge economy development as well as the fastest-growing regions. The authors identified critical success factors in the modernization of regional economic systems. Besides, the authors marked the negative trend in the development of the knowledge economy in more than half of Russian regions. On the one hand, this is due to the economic crisis and a reduction in investment; on the other hand, institutional problems continue to restrain economic development. The results can be used in further theoretical and applied studies for both Russia and other transition economies.
We developed the mechanism of assessing cyber risks for Internet of Things (IoT) projects. The relevance of this topic is explained by growing sophistication of cyber-attacks, the speed of new threats emergence and increasing damage from the attacks. The paper addresses decreasing efficiencies of existing mechanisms of cyber risk assessment and fills the research gaps in this area. Results include development of the mechanism’s concept, its block diagram, the specification and description of its comprising tools and the case study. Unlike peers, the mechanism provided holistic approach to cyber risk assessment; integrated and coordinated all related activities and tools. It simulated the confidence interval of project return on investments (ROI) and showing the chances to go above risk appetite. It makes cyber risk assessment dynamic, iterative, responsive to changes in cyber environment. These advantages let us conclude that the mechanism should have a significant scientific and practical use.
In this article, we evaluate CEO behavior in terms of his or her preferences to risk, and how the actions of boards of directors interplay with these behaviors. Specifically, we set out to test whether the actions of boards of directors can overcome the negative impacts of CEO behavior on various aspects of payout policy. We set out to examine these tendencies in terms of the levels of payout, the propensity to pay, and the choice of payout channel utilized. We use several compensation-based proxies to measure CEO risk preferences on a sample of non-financial and non-utility companies from the US for 2007 to 2016 from the S&P 1500 Index. Our contribution is threefold. First, the findings fill the gaps in the research on the impact of CEO risk preferences on the decision to start paying dividends and on the decisions to switch between cash dividend and share repurchase. The results indicate that CEOs who are encouraged by the boards to take more risks paid out more through repurchases, while less risky CEOs are more likely to initiate paying dividends. Second, by means of quantile regression we demonstrate that the level of repurchases is more sensitive to the CEO’s risk preferences in the companies from top quartiles. Third, by introducing our index of corporate governance quality, we may document that corporate governance tools reduce or even eliminate the negative effects of CEO risk preferences. In companies with high corporate governance index, the risk preferences of the CEO do not affect payout decisions.
This paper aims to discover evidence on the possible impact of CEO overconfidence on payout policy, and the role of corporate boards in offsetting the possible negative effects of this overconfidence. Our investigation demonstrates the effect of overconfidence on the choice of payout method, specifically regarding the repurchases-dividends mix. We also evaluate the ability of corporate governance mechanisms to reduce or even eliminate the negative effects of CEO behavior on payout decisions.
This study is conducted using a sample of 671 non-financial companies from the US for the period of 2007–2016. We apply probit regressions to study different aspects of payout decisions, and use a panel GMM estimator to check for possible endogenous effects. Using a corporate governance quality index, we test the ability of boards of directors to reduce negative effects of CEO’s overconfidence on the payout decisions.
Our findings confirm the hypothesis that overconfident CEOs tend to increase the levels of payout in the form of repurchases, while the levels of cash dividends are unaffected by this type of CEO behavior. Moreover, an overconfident CEO is more likely to initiate repurchases if this has not been done already. The results further illustrate that overconfident CEOs not only pursue higher levels of repurchases, but also switch more often from cash dividends to repurchases. However, it is also shown, in contract to previous research in the field, that efficient boards of directors have very limited power in eliminating the negative effects of CEO overconfidence.
This paper contributes to the existing literature by analyzing the specific area of CEO overconfidence using data from
the United States, and follows specific lines of inquiry which have not been deeply studied. Further possibilities to explore the implications of this research exists particularly in the consideration of its apparent contradiction of previous research. There is yet scope to determine applicable tools of reducing the negative effects of specific CEO behaviors. It is possible to identify and investigate other relevant behavioral characteristics that may influence payout decisions. Further, these characteristics may be evaluated to see if the operation of these interrelations reproduce alternative results in terms of the effect of corporate governance, both in the US and in other markets.
Sustainable development is a worldwide recognized social and political goal, discussed in both academic and political discourse and with much research on the topic related to sustainable development in higher education. Since mental models are formed more effectively at school age, we propose a new way of thinking that will help achieve this goal. The authors undertook this study in the context of Russia, where the topic of sustainable development in education has been yet poorly developed. The authors used the classical methodology of the case analysis. The analysis and interpretation of the results employed the framework of the institutional theory. Presented is the case of Ural Federal University, which has been working for several years on the creation of a device for the purification of industrial sewer water in the framework of an initiative student group. Schoolchildren recently joined the program, and such projects have been called university-to-school projects. Successful solutions for inventive tasks contribute to the formation of mental models. This case has been analyzed in terms of institutionalism, and the authors argue for the primacy of mental institutions over normative ones during sustainable society construction. This case study is the first to analyze a partnership between a Federal University and local schools regarding sustainable education and proposes a new way of thinking.