Research Seminar on Empirical Studies of Banking

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The HSE School of Finance is the leading Russian competence center in the field of corporate finance, business valuation, banking, stock market, risk management and insurance, accounting and audit.

HSE is the first Russian university in the global ranking "QS - World University Rankings by subject", 2022 in the subject area of Accounting and Finance. Moreover, the university is the 1-st in the rating "THE World University Rankings by subject" in the subject area of Business & Management Studies, 2022

Publications

Book

Systemic Financial Risk: An Emerging Market Perspective

Palgrave Macmillan, 2024.

Article

Resilience Index Development for Digital Ecosystems and Its Implementation: The Case of Russian Companies

Grishunin S., Ivashkovskaya I., Brendeleva N. et al.

Journal of Corporate Finance Research. 2025. Vol. 19. No. 1. P. 25-40.

Book chapter

Beyond Claims: CSR Reports, ESG Initiatives, and the Consequences of Impressions Management; Empirical Analysis

Badr I., Rawnaa Ibrahim, Hussainey K.

In bk.: Opportunities and Risks in AI for Business Development. Vol. 2: 546. Bk. Opportunities and Risks in AI for Business Development. Prt. 636. Springer, 2025. P. 385-399.

Working paper

A New Approach to Identifying Political Connections: Evidence from the Russian Banking Sector

Kozlov N., Semenova M.

Financial Economics. WP HSE. HSE University, 2025. No. 1/FE/2025.

All publications

This seminar is the platform for discussing relevant questions and results of empirical research of the bank activity. The seminar is compulsory for the doctoral students of the School of finance for testing the result of their researches.

Persons

Alexander M. Karminsky

Research Professor

Andrey Egorov

Lecturer

General information

Frequency of the seminar

Rules of participation

Speakers

Publications

Place of realization

Contacts

2024-2025

№2025-174

On June 18 at 18:10 The Institute of Financial Innovation and Risk Management, within the framework of the Scientific Research Seminar "Empirical Research of Banking activity", will hold a preliminary discussion (pre-defense) of the PhD thesis of Yegor Pastukhov on the topic: "Development of methods, models and tools for controlling the risks of digital assets".

Scientific Director: to.e.n., Associate Professor Sergey Vadimovich Grishunin

This paper examines the main trends and risks for commercial banks related to the introduction and distribution of digital assets, including the digital ruble, in the Russian financial market. The purpose of the study is to build a model of the impact of the digital ruble on commercial banks in the Russian Federation. The relevance of this study is due to the rapid growth of the market capitalization of digital financial assets based on blockchain technology in both international and Russian financial markets, as more and more countries are preparing to launch their own national digital currencies. However, there is a shortage of information in the scientific and practical literature on the prospects, problems and risks of introducing digital financial assets, including the digital ruble, in Russia. The data for the analysis included official statistics and analytics from the Bank of Russia and central banks of countries considering the possibility of introducing digital national currencies. It also included the content of key Russian legislation related to digital currencies, as well as examples of the introduction of digital financial assets from Russian and foreign practice. The potential impact of this new currency on the stability of domestic banks and monetary conditions in Russia, including inflation, is being assessed. We are developing a model for assessing the impact of the digital ruble project, as well as contributing to the field of digital assets and describing the risks associated with creating a platform for CFA circulation. The research can be used by commercial banks in building a balance sheet management strategy and product pricing.

Head of the NIS "Empirical Research of Banking Activities": d.e.n., d.t.n. Professor, Head of the laboratory of the NUL FIiRM Alexander Markovich Karminsky.

Academic Secretary: A.U. Yegorov

June 18, 2025 in 18:10

online

Webinar connection link:

https://my.mts-link.ru/j/81570443/729031211/stream-new/2091187276

№2025-173

May 28, 2025 (Wednesday) at 18:10 the Scientific Research Seminar "Empirical Research of Banking Activity" will be held, where Nikita Permyakov will present a report on "Improving the Accuracy of Predicting the Probability of Default of Corporate Borrowers by Using Information about Their Economic Environment"

The research seminar is also recommended for students of the IPS

Speaker:
Nikita Petrovich Permyakov, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (MIPT)
"Improving the Accuracy of Predicting the Probability of Default of Corporate Borrowers by Using Information about Their Economic Environment"

This study is devoted to the development of algorithms that help improve the accuracy of assessing the probability of default of corporate borrowers by using information about other borrowers who are economically connected to this borrower when assessing the credit risk of each borrower. At present, many banks are solving similar problems, but there is no practical experience in implementing such models for Russian corporate borrowers in the public domain. An economic relationship between two borrowers is understood as a set of criteria characterizing the dependence of borrowers on each other in the implementation of their investment, financial and operational activities, in particular, the criterion of an economic relationship between borrowers may be the presence of guarantees between them, as well as the presence of counter transactions. As part of the study, a sample of Spark-Interfax data on corporate borrowers was formed according to certain criteria (to be described in the results of the study) and for each borrower, its economic environment was determined, that is, a set of borrowers who have significant economic ties with this borrower. Consolidated groups of borrowers from annual financial statements of Russian companies, formed according to legal criteria, were used as a target markup of the presence of economic ties between borrowers, information on transactions is taken from closed sources and is not disclosed in the future. The result of the study demonstrated that economic environment factors can significantly improve the accuracy of models for assessing the probability of default for corporate borrowers. As a result, the obtained approaches to the formation of the economic environment and indicators based on the economic environment can be used by banks to improve the accuracy of their own models for assessing the probability of default of corporate borrowers.

Keywords: probability of default, transactions, economic environment, graph methods, logistic regression

Date: May 28, 2025 (Wednesday)
Time: 18:10

Venue: MTS LINK

№2025-172

On April 23, 2025 (Wednesday) at 18:10, the R & D Session "Empirical Research of Banking Activity" will be held, where O. S. Shcherbakova, a 4th-year Bachelor (under the supervision of A. V. Morgunov, PhD), and A.D. Melovatsky, a 2nd-year postgraduate student (under the supervision of Yu. Ya. Dranev, PhD)will speak.

The research seminar is also recommended for students of IPS

Speakers:

Shcherbakova O. S. (under the guidance of Ph. D. Morgunov A.V.)

"Assessment of credit risk losses for corporate borrowers using machine learning methods "

In this study, we estimated the expected default losses (ECL) of corporate borrowers in the consumer goods industry (FMCG) to create reserves in accordance with IAS 9 standards. Using various machine learning methods, several default probability models were built and the predictive abilities of each of them were evaluated. Then the LGD model was built for the same borrowers. The data consists of companies ' financial indicators for 2016-2023, as well as various macroeconomic data. Financial indicators were taken from the SPARK Interfax source. As a result of this study, the factors that have the greatest impact on the occurrence of default are identified and models for estimating losses for reservation and pricing purposes are constructed

Melovatsky A.D. (under the supervision of Dranev Yu. Y., Doctor of Economics)

"Modeling the effects of technological development to support strategic decision-making at Russian oil and gas production enterprises"

The oil and gas sector, which is the mainstay of the Russian economy and a key source of export revenue, faces complex challenges due to the growing share of hard-to-recover hydrocarbon reserves (TRIZ) and unprecedented sanctions restrictions. These factors pose a threat to the long-term profitability of mining, requiring companies to review their technological development strategies and optimize their investment in innovation. In the conditions of limited access to foreign technologies necessary for the development of TRIZ, the task of modeling the effects of technological changes for the formation of adaptive strategies is actualized. The aim of this study is to develop a methodology for modeling technological effects aimed at supporting strategic decision-making by Russian oil and gas producers in the context of sanctions risks. The paper focuses on analyzing the impact of R & D expenditures on operational efficiency, financial stability, and adaptive capacity of companies. A modified model of real options is proposed, taking into account the specifics of TRIZ and sanctions. The methodological base of the study combines methods of comparative analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, scenario forecasting, and data verification based on historical indicators and expert estimates. Special attention is paid to the analysis of big data reflecting the dynamics of R & D expenditures and the impact of sanctions on key projects. The results of the study allow us to optimize the allocation of R & D resources, focusing on priority technological areas, such as increasing oil recovery, digitalization of production, and localization of critical technologies.

Date: April 23
Time: 18: 10

Location of the event: MTS LINK

https://my.mts-link.ru/j/81570443/729031211/stream-new/2091187276

Head of seven ara schools: Professor A.M. Karminsky.
Academic Secretary: A. Y. Yegorov

№2025-171

March 26 (Wednesday) 2025 at the National Research University "Higher School of Economics"

An extraordinary joint meeting of Moscow-wide scientific seminars will be held "MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF DECISION ANALYSIS IN ECONOMICS, BUSINESS AND POLITICS", "EXPERT ASSESSMENTS AND DATA ANALYSIS", and the research seminar "EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON BANKING"

Heads of the joint seminar meeting: Doctor of Technical Sciences, professor. Fuad Tagievich Aleskerov, Doctor of Economics, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor Alexander Markovich Karminsky, Doctor of Technical Sciences, professor. Podinovsky Vladislav Vladimirovich, Doctor of Technical Sciences, professor. Mirkin Boris Grigorievich.

1. Title of the first report: Causal inference methods for assessing the impact of the development of digital multi-party platforms on economic growth

The first speaker: Voitov N.V. (National Research University of Higher School of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract of the first report: The report presents the results of a study of the impact of the development of digital multilateral platforms on the economic growth rates of national economies using methods of potential outcomes and causal inference. A quasi-experimental approach to evaluating the effect using the CausalEconomic2Vec (CE2V) neural network model based on the encoder-decoder architecture has been developed. The model forms a latent space of economic indicators (embeddings) from high-dimensional panel data, which makes it possible to create synthetic controls and evaluate counterfactual outcomes for countries with developing platform economies. Based on data from the World Bank and the author's dataset on 56 platform companies from 23 countries, the cumulative effect of platform development on GDP growth over the period 1990-2023 was assessed, taking into account 267 socio-economic indicators. The results obtained demonstrate a multidirectional effect: for most developing countries, the GDP growth rate accelerated with the start of active development of the platform economy, while in developed economies the opposite effect was often observed. The report presents methods for evaluating the quality of fit and robustness of the proposed approach based on placebo and balancing tests, as well as the quality of clustering without a country teacher based on the vector representations obtained.

2. Title of the second report: Simulation of the process of spreading the banking panic Second speaker: Ramenskaya A.V. (National Research University of Higher School of Economics)

Abstract of the second report: A "raid on the bank" is a negative phenomenon in the financial sector of the economy, which is not always caused by legitimate socio-economic reasons. Small regional banks are more at risk of bankruptcy from simultaneous mass withdrawal of deposits. The purpose of the study is to develop a tool for modeling the process of outflow of deposits of individuals for a regional commercial bank. A simulation model of the process of spreading a bank panic based on the concept of agent-based modeling is proposed. The model takes into account customer communication and individual characteristics of depositors, allows you to assess the dynamics, the number and total volume of active deposits, the number of bank customers who prematurely withdrew deposits, and the total volume of prematurely closed deposits. The sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis of the development of a bank panic are carried out depending on the tendency to panic in society, the intensity of communication between the bank's customers, and the intensity of new customers' arrivals.

Language: Russian The meeting will be held at 2:30 p.m. online on the Zoom platform.

The address for connecting to the broadcast: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86862557441?pwd=bXFTV1VsTksvcVRzd01QdFZwTDFwQT09

№2025-170

On March 19, at 18:10, the NIS "Empirical Research of Banking Activity" will be held. Asel Asanbekovna Chonkoeva, Associate Professor of the I. Razzakov KSTU, will make a presentation on the topic "Innovative banking technologies in ensuring financial and economic security in construction." The report is devoted to the analysis of innovative banking technologies and their role in ensuring financial and economic security in the construction industry. Modern digital solutions such as blockchain, smart contracts, artificial intelligence and remote banking will be considered, as well as their impact on transparency of financial transactions, risk reduction and optimization of settlements between participants in the construction market. Special attention will be paid to the prospects for the development of these technologies and their importance for the sustainability of the construction sector.

The second speaker will be Ivan Andreevich Pakhomov, a student at the Higher School of Economics, with a report on the topic "Spatial Efficiency of cryptocurrency Markets." The development and attractiveness of the cryptocurrency markets raise questions about their effectiveness. The spatial concept regarding cryptocurrencies covers not only differences between regions, countries, and exchanges, but also differences between blockchains and the degree of centralization. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the spatial efficiency of cryptocurrency markets based on models, as well as qualitative and quantitative assessment of the factors influencing this efficiency.

The meeting will be held in a hybrid format.

In person at the address: Pokrovsky Boulevard, 11, room S622 MTS LINK: https://my.mts-link.ru/j/81570443/729031211/stream-new/2091187276

№2024-22

169 On November 13, 2024, at 18:10, a research seminar "Empirical research on banking activities" will be held. Speakers: Candidate of Economics S.V. Grishunin and Candidate of Economics K.L. Polyakov with a report on the topic: "How to analyze literature?" Literature analysis is an important and integral stage in any scientific research, serving as a basis for creating a theoretical framework, identifying existing knowledge gaps and substantiating the relevance of the topic under study. This report examines the process of literature analysis as a methodological tool that allows researchers not only to summarize the results of previous research, but also to identify key trends, concepts and approaches in this field.

Seminar leader: Professor A.M. Karminsky. Scientific Secretary: A.Y. Egorov November 13, 2024 at 18:10 online For more information, visit the ZERO website https://economics.hse.ru/finrmlab/

№2024-22 168

On November 6, 2024, at 18:10, a research seminar "Empirical research on banking activities" will be held. Speakers: PhD Morgunov A.V. and PhD Polyakov K.L. with a report on the topic: "How to work with data?" In the rapidly changing information landscape of modern society, the volume of knowledge, information and analytics is constantly increasing, which creates an urgent task for companies and researchers — the need for effective data collection, processing and analysis. This report presents a comprehensive approach to working with data, covering key aspects such as the stages of its collection, storage, processing and analysis of information.

Seminar leader: Professor A.M. Karminsky. Scientific Secretary: A.Y. Egorov November 6, 2024 at 18:10 online For more information, visit the ZERO website https://economics.hse.ru/finrmlab/

№2024-22 166

The Research Seminar "Empirical Studies of Banking Activities" will be held on October 30, 2024 at 18:30. M.A. Chasovnikova and A.V. Morgunov will speak at the seminar on the topic "Development of a system of models for assessing the probability of default of corporate borrowers in the Metallurgy industry for the purposes of reserving and pricing"

Models for assessing the probability of default are important for credit risk management in Russian commercial banks. Currently, banks are updating models for various risk segments in accordance with Bank of Russia Regulation 483-P. Rating models contribute to a more accurate distribution of regulatory capital, calculation of reserves and formation of interest rates. The study focuses on metallurgical companies whose activities range from the extraction of metal ores to the production of products. These companies represent a specific risk segment, the importance of which is increasing in the context of import substitution and the implementation of infrastructure projects, which emphasizes the relevance of the topic.

Seminar leader: Professor A.M. Karminsky.
Scientific secretary: A.Yu. Egorov

October 30, 2024 at 18:00

Online

More details on the NUL website

https://economics.hse.ru/finrmlab/

No. 2024-22 165

On October 23, 2024 at 18:00, the Research Seminar "Empirical Studies of Banking Activities" will be held. The seminar will feature an invited speaker S.D. Smirnov, Moscow State University "Green" bonds as a tool for financing environmental investment projects.

The report will show the importance of implementing environmental projects for Russian companies, taking into account the growing risks and opportunities affecting financial results. It discusses the problem of low profitability and long payback periods of these projects, which hinders their active implementation. One of the methods for increasing the attractiveness of environmental investments is "green" bonds, which can reduce the cost of financing. To test this hypothesis, an empirical study was conducted based on data from 20 largest Russian public companies for the period from 2014 to 2021, including non-financial reporting and the results of initial bond placements. The results of the study can help in understanding the impact of the cost of debt on the level of environmental investments in the country.

Smirnov S.D. - PhD candidate, Moscow State University

Also within the framework of the Scientific Seminar, there will be a discussion of the collective monograph "Innovations of Financial Institutions", edited by Professor A.M. Karminsky, which is addressed to researchers, practitioners and students interested in new trends and instruments that shape the financial landscape. The publication constitutes a theoretical basis for further study and analysis of financial innovations and their impact on risk management, pricing and investment decisions. Given the relevance of the topic, it will become a useful resource for those who seek to adapt to the rapidly changing financial environment.

Head of the Research Institute "Empirical Studies of Banking Activity": Professor A.M. Karminsky.
Scientific Secretary A.Yu. Egorov

October 23, 2024 at 18:00

Online

More details

No. 2024-22 164

On October 16, 2024, the research seminar "Empirical Studies of Banking Activities" was held. Two speakers spoke at the seminar:

Egorova A.A. (Deloitte, HSE) on the topic "The Impact of ESG Factors on the Financial Performance of Companies"

Pankova V. (CMASF, IEF RAS) on the topic "Modeling the Dynamics of Retail Segments of the Financial Market and Assessing its Impact on the Development of the Financial Sector of Russia"

Head of the Research Institute "Empirical Studies of Banking Activities": Professor A.M. Karminsky. Scientific Secretary A.Yu. Egorov

Webinar connection link:
https://my.mts-link.ru/j/81570443/729031211/stream-new/2091187276

More details

No. 2024-163 October 8-9, 2024

October 8-9, 2024, the Scientific and Practical Laboratory of Financial Innovations and Risk Management and the School of Finance of the National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow) held a scientific and practical conference "Digital Currencies and Assets: Problems and Prospects"

The conference is dedicated to the discussion of current issues and modern trends in the field of digitalization of money and finance.

Structure The conference consists of two sections:

Section 1 - "Digital ruble: theory and practice of using digital currencies in domestic and cross-border settlements" will be held on October 8 (14:00-17:00) at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, at the following address: Nakhimovsky Prospekt, Building 32, 4th floor, Academic Council meeting room.

Section 2 - "Digital financial assets: instruments, technologies and economic potential for use in the Russian financial market" will be held on October 9 (14:00-17:00) at the National Research University "Higher School of Economics", at the following address: Pokrovsky Boulevard, Building 11, room T510.

№2024-162

On October 3-5, the session "Financial Innovations, Risk Management and Control" was held within the framework of the 11th International Conference of the Higher School of Management "Economics and Management" 2024 (EMC 2024)

Alexander Karminsky, Head of the Laboratory of Financial Innovations and Risk Management, HSE karminsky@mail.ru

Sergey Grishunin, Associate Professor, HSE

Alexey Morgunov, Associate Professor, HSE

Maria Shchepeleva, Associate Professor, HSE

Digital innovations are integrated into all areas of modern business, including financial institutions. The modern financial world is unthinkable without blockchain, big data, digital currencies and artificial intelligence. The consequences of the digital revolution in finance are the blurring of the boundaries of the financial industry and the emergence of new competitors, the reformatting of business models of financial institutions, the emergence of fundamentally new products and services for households and businesses. At the same time, the introduction of new technologies in finance entails the emergence of new and evolving risks, the nature and consequences of which have not been sufficiently studied.

https://gsom.spbu.ru/en/research/conferences/emc/#:~:text=Graduate%20School%20of%20Management%20at,in%20the%20period%20of%20turmoil.

№2024-161 October 2, 2024

On October 2, 2024, a research seminar "Empirical Studies of Banking Activities" was held. The invited speaker at the seminar, O. M. Chernomordik, spoke on the topic "Achievements and problems of fingerprinting technologies as applied to information security issues." The report will cover the following issues:

1. An overview of fingerprinting technologies, including fingerprint scanners, correlation and classical algorithms, as well as three types of possible errors and related achievements and problems.
2. Analysis of the quote that "fingerprint data are unique characteristics for authentication of an individual in financial transactions; they are more difficult to counterfeit or steal. This makes them a reliable means of protecting financial information."

O. M. Chernomordik is a candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, a graduate of the Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics of Moscow State University (1971), and has experience in fingerprinting technologies since 1992.

Head of the Research Institute "Empirical Studies of Banking Activity": Professor A. M. Karminsky.

October 2, 2024 at 6:00 PM in s612
Pokrovsky Blvd, 11, Moscow

Webinar connection link:
https://my.mts-link.ru/j/81570443/729031211/stream-new/2091187276

No. 2024-160 September 1, 2024

Dear colleagues, students and friends! Happy new academic year! September 1 is a special day when we reopen the doors of our classrooms and labs filled with new knowledge, ideas and discoveries. This is the time when we set new goals and objectives, dive into the world of financial innovations and risk management, strive for self-improvement and development. We believe that this academic year will bring many opportunities for scientific research, effective cooperation and interesting projects. May each of you find inspiration in new knowledge, and may perseverance and talent help you achieve your goals. Together we can make our contribution to the development of financial science and practice more significant. We wish you all health, creative success and joy from learning! With a new beginning, from September 1!

Previous events

2023-2024

№2024-159

On July 1, 2024, Yuri Yakovlevich Dranev successfully defended his doctoral dissertation on the topic "Modeling the Impact of Innovative Development Risks on Firm Value", submitted for the degree of Doctor of Economics.

Research on modeling innovative development risks and their impact on company value is of undoubted value and will be in demand both in the academic environment and in the business community. Experience and expertise will become a significant resource for further improvement of strategic management methods for innovative companies.

Dear Yuri Yakovlevich, we wish you further creative success, the implementation of all your professional plans and endeavors, good health and well-being!

May your scientific and pedagogical talent serve the benefit of the development of the domestic economy and science.

№2024-158

Preliminary discussion (pre-defense) of the candidate dissertation of A.A. Egorova

On June 13, 2024 at 16:00, the School of Finance of the Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science (FES) held a preliminary defense of the candidate's dissertation of Alexandra Alekseevna Egorova on the topic: "The Impact of ESG Factors on the Financial Performance of Companies" at a meeting of the research seminar "Empirical Studies of Banking Activities" with the participation of the Scientific and Research Laboratory of Financial Innovations and Risk Management. Scientific specialty: 38.06.01 Economics
Scientific supervisor: D.Sc. (Econ.), D.Sc. (Eng.), full professor of the National Research University Higher School of Economics Alexander Markovich Karminsky

Reviewers and discussants:

Irina Vasilievna Ivashkovskaya, D.Sc. (Econ.), full professor, head of the School of Finance,

Leonid Markovich Grigoryev, Ph.D. (Econ.), full professor, professor of the Department of World Economy of the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics,

Tatiana Grigoryevna Dolgopjatova, D.Sc. (Econ.), full professor, chief research fellow of the Laboratory of Corporate Governance Analysis of the Institute for Enterprise and Market Analysis,

Yuri Yakovlevich Dranev, PhD, associate professor of the School of Finance, director of the Center for Quantitative Modeling of the ISSEK National Research University Higher School of Economics,

Sergey Vadimovich Grishunin, Ph.D. (Econ.), associate professor of the School finance,

Morgunov Alexey Vladimirovich, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of the School of Finance.

Pre-defense was held remotely (on the Zoom platform).

The text of the dissertation and summary can be found at the School of Finance and the Scientific Laboratory of Financial Innovations and Risk Management.

№2024-157

On March 20, an in-person scientific seminar was held, where Nadezhda Frolova will speak on the topic "Development of an integrated approach to assessing the prevalence and counteracting unfair consumer lending practices", and Vladislav Afanasyev on the topic "Using non-financial data to predict default in the Russian services sector"

The master class is also aimed at participants of IPS31, IPS48, IPS70, IPS108, IPS112

March 20, 2024 18:00
Moscow, Pokrovsky Boulevard, 11
S622

Head of the Research Institute "Empirical Studies of Banking Activities": Professor A.M. Karminsky.

N.D. Frolova on the topic "Development of a comprehensive approach to assessing the prevalence of and counteracting unfair consumer lending practices"

In the modern world, consumer lending is becoming increasingly widespread. However, with this growth, the number of unfair practices on the part of lenders also increases. In this regard, the relevance of developing a comprehensive approach to assessing and counteracting these practices becomes undeniable. The study offers a solution to this problem, allowing for better control and prevention of negative consequences for clients and the financial sector as a whole.

Afanasyev V.V. on the topic "Using non-financial data to predict default in the Russian service sector"

This study presents data indicating an increase in the quality of default forecasting for firms from individual sectors of the Russian service sector, provided that non-financial data are included in the models.
As a first step, default forecasting models based only on financial ratios were tested on data from Russian service firms and service firms from developed European countries. It is shown that the quality of forecasts for Russian firms is significantly inferior to the quality of forecasts for firms from developed European countries.
Then, several industries were selected and a number of default forecasting models were developed, which made it possible to show that the addition of non-financial data leads to an increase in the accuracy of the models.
In addition to a number of non-financial factors that have previously been used by researchers in this area, the study also proposed some factors that have never been used in default forecasting (for example, business inspection data), and it was shown that they are valuable for forecasting. The practical results of the study may be of interest to credit institutions and counterparties of private firms in the service sector.

Link to connect to the Webinar:
https://alfabank.ktalk.ru/ips70

№2024-156

21 February 2024 at 18:10. Within the framework of the seminar, a discussion of the doctoral dissertation of Egorova A.A. will be held. The topic: "The influence of ESG factors on the financial results of companies." The master class, in particular, is aimed at IPS participants

Head of the NIS “Empirical Research of Banking Activity”: Professor A.M. Karminsky.
Topic of the report: "The influence of ESG factors on the financial results of companies"
Speaker: Egorova A.A. - expert in ESG and risk management

ESG factors, which cover the environmental, social and governance aspects of companies, are playing an increasingly significant role in determining their financial performance. Companies that actively implement and successfully manage these factors often demonstrate higher financial performance, innovation and competitiveness. At the same time, failure to pay attention to ESG aspects can lead to such negative consequences as loss of investor confidence, reputational risks and a decrease in the company’s capitalization.
Webinar connection link:
https://alfabank.ktalk.ru/ips70

№2024-155

21 February 2024 at 18:10 there will be a seminar on the topic: «Tools of monetary analysis for central banks».
Speaker: Ponomarenko A.A., expert in the field of monetary policy and financial markets. The report will highlight current issues in the development of monetary analysis tools that can be applied in the activities of central banks.
Event format: online
Link: https://alfabank.ktalk.ru/ips70

2022 - 2023

№2022-138

On December 9-10, 2022, The Special Session 03: Modeling Financial and Economic Sustainability for Decision Making and Governance will be held during The Ninth International Conference on Information Technology and Quantitative Management (ITQM 2022)
Chairs: Alexander Karminsky, Massimiliano Caporin, Mikhail Stolbov
Friday, 9 December, 09:00—10:30 (Moscow Time, UTC+3:00)
Friday, 9 December, 14:00—15:30 (China Standard Time UTC+8:00)
Tencent (VooV) Meeting Room ID: 216-232-648
Volunteer: Tongsheng Yao (yaotongsheng20@mails.ucas.edu.cn)

In Search of Greenium. Empirical Analysis of Risk
Premiums in the European Green Bond Market (ID 30)
Sergei Grishunin and Alesya Bukreeva

Determinants of the IPO waves in the banking sector (ID 40)
Vladimir Belyaev

Financial Innovation and Financial Risks (ID 78)
Andrey Egorov

Second-order accuracy metrics for scoring models and their
practical use (ID 98)
Mikhail Pomazanov

Impact of Demographic Trends on Retail Banking (ID 144)
Natalia Arkhipova

A study on environmental pollution transfer in Beijing
Tianjin Hebei region -- based on input-output method (ID
150)
Tongsheng Yao

Optimal Strategy of Defending Capacitated Systems Against
Sequential Intentional and Unintentional Impacts (ID 165)
Lin Chen and Kunxiang Yi

Ecological, Social and Governance Impact on the
Company’s Performance: Information Technology Sector
Insight (ID 188)
Alexandra Egorova, Alexander Karminsky and Chigireva Daria

Arbitrage as a new normal in contemporary financial
markets? (ID 189)
Artem Arkhipov

Подробне на сайте: http://itqm-meeting.org/2022/index.html

№2022-137

On December 7, 2022 at 18:10, a master class by Ph.D. Alexey Lobanov on the topic: "Approaches to the reflection of climatic factors in the assessment of credit risk."

Also within the framework of the seminar, Ph.D. Dmitry Pomazkin will present the topic: "Instrumental methods for systematization and processing of large data arrays"

The master class is aimed at participants of the IPS №85, 151, 152, 157

Seminar leader Prof., Doctor of Economics, A. Karminsky, HSE School of Finance.

Data for remote login:

Join a Zoom meeting

https://raif-ru.zoom.us/j/82292334951?pwd=Tnkvekp6R2pjOFVCOW56UVMyelB6QT09

Meeting ID: 822 9233 4951

Passcode: 608356

№2022-136

On November 25, 2022 at 10:00 am, the 5th International Seminar “Systemic Risks in the Financial Sector” will be held online on the Zoom platform.

The international seminar brings together researchers and practitioners working on the issues of financial stability of the capital market and the banking system. Scientists from European and leading Russian universities, as well as representatives of the regulator (The Central Bank of the Russian Federation) will present their reports and act as discussants.

The key speaker of the conference Professor of IPAG Business School (Paris), Duc Khuon Nguyen will present a report on the topic: "Common Factors of Commodity Futures".

Data for remote login:

Join a Zoom meeting

https://zoom.us/j/94164716656?pwd=bXdEQWlDV2RvV3AxMlR5OUpoM0NiQT09

Meeting ID: 941 6471 6656

Passcode: 771199

Schedule of International Seminar “Systemic Risks in the Financial Sector” (PDF, 512 Кб)

№2022-135

On November 16, 2022 at 18:10, within the framework of the NIS “Empirical Research in Banking Activity”, a master class by Alexei Ponomarenko will be held on the topic: “Digital currencies. Digital ruble"
The master class is aimed at participants of the IPS 85, 151, 152, 157

Seminar Leader Prof., Doctor of Economics, A. Karminsky, School of Finance.

Topic: “Digital currencies. Digital ruble"

Speaker: Alexey Ponomarenko, Ph.D. in Economics, Head of Division, Research and Forecasting Department, Bank of Russia

Data for remote login:

Join a Zoom meeting

https://vk.com/away.php?to=https%3A%2F%2Fraif-ru.zoom.us%2Fj%2F82292334951%3Fpwd%3DTnkvekp6R2pjOFVCOW&cc_key=

2021 - 2022

2020 - 2021

No. 2021-112 On June 16, 2021 at 18:00

Reports on the results and state of the dissertation work of 2nd-year postgraduates of D. Leontyeva and V. Stefanenko

Speakers: D. Leontyevа (supervisor - E. Dzhagityan), V. Stefanenko (leader - H. Penikas), K. Borisenkova. (leader - M. Kokoreva)

Participants: postgraduate students of the Academy of Sciences in economics, everyone interested

Responsible: A. Karminsky

Link to Zoom: https://zoom.us/j/93475646817

No. 2021-112 On June 9, 2021 at 18:00

A presentation of the topic and results of the planned dissertation research of 1st-year postgraduates will take place (supervisor A. Karminsky)

Speakers: A. Astakhova, A. Egorova, O. Somova, N. Voitov

Participants: postgraduate students of the Academy of Sciences in economics, everyone interested

Responsible: A. Karminsky, S.Grishunin

Place: Pokrovsky Boulevard, 11, S612.

You can also connect to Zoom: https://zoom.us/j/91204534579

No. 2021-110 May 26, 2021 at 18:00

1. Messages on the results and status of the dissertation work of a 2-year postgraduate student A. Egorova, N. Arkhipova. (leader Karminsky A.M.)

2. Presentation of the topic and results of the planned dissertation research of 1st year graduate students II Kalinin, KY Chumachkova, SS Ivlev, EF Bulam.

Speakers: A. Egorov, N. Arkhipova (2nd course), S. Ivlev (leader V. Dobrynskaya), K. Chumachkov (leader M. Pomorina), E. Bulam (leader E. Fedorova), I. Kalinina (Y. Dranev)

Participants: postgraduate students of the Academy of Sciences in economics, everyone interested

Responsible: A. Karminsky, Y. Dranev

Join a Zoom meeting:

https://zoom.us/j/97789035570

№2021-109 On April 28, 2021 at 18:00

1. Messages on the results and status of the dissertation work of a 2nd-year postgraduate student S.V. Elysheva, and A.A. Markova. (hands Lapshin V.A.)

2. Presentation of the topic and results of the planned dissertation research of 1st-year graduate students (supervisor V. Lapshin)

Speakers: Elyshev S.V., Markov A.A .. 2nd year, Postnov N.S., Longvinenko A.Yu., Vysotsky G.N. - 1 course

Participants: postgraduate students of the Academy of Sciences in economics, everyone interested

Responsible: Karminsky A.M., Lapshin V.A.

No. 2021-108 April 22-23

2021 will be held a section of financial institutions, markets, and payment systems / April International Scientific Conference

Speakers: According to the AMNK program, section E

Participants: postgraduate students of the Academy of Sciences in economics, everyone interested

Responsible: Karminsky A, Egorov A.

№2021-107 April 14, 2021 at 18:00 on Zoom

Research Seminar on Empirical Studies of Banking, supervised by Prof. Karminsky Alexander

1. Discussion of results of the dissertation work by Semyashkin E fim in pre-defense format.

Speaker: Semyashkin Efim

2. "Accuracy metrics of second-order scoring (rating) models and their practical use"

Speakers: Pomazanov Mikhail, Ilishaev Semen

Participants: postgraduate students of the School of Economics

Responsible: Karminsky Alexander

The link to the Zoom conference:

https://zoom.us/j/91702654929?pwd=N3RiYThvRy9xOVQwYXZWdjBZWFJ0Zz09

№2021-106 On March 24, 2021 at 16:20

A student scientific conference of graduation and term papers on the subject of risk management, assessment of the effectiveness of banking activities, ratings, including ESG

Speakers: students and co-leaders of IPS 119, 132, 133, 136

Participants: graduate students in banking and students of the IPS 119, 132, 133, 136

Responsible: Karminsky A.M., Grishunin S.V., Polyakov K.L., Astakhova A.A., Egorova A.A., Somova O.I.

№2021-105 On March 17, 2021 at 16:20

A student scientific conference of graduation and term papers on innovation in banking will take place.

Speakers: students and co-leaders of IPS 132 and 176.

Participants: Graduate students in banking and students of IPS 132, 176, 119.

Responsible: Karminsky A.M., Dyachkova N.F., Egorov A.Yu., Arkhipova N.E., Voitov N.V., Vlasov A.V.

No. 2021-104 On February 10, 2021 at 16.20

An online meeting will be held (Zoom platform).

Reports:

Nikolay Sheverdyaev, Munira Dzhuraeva, Alisher Gaibullaev, Polina Barkova, Maria Potapova (students of HSE) (under the direction of Andrey Egorov): "Modern information technologies in banking"
Dzhangir Kadyrbek, Roman Sarsengaliev, Anna Razumova, Alena Titova, Stafilov Stafil, Varvara Kapustina (HSE students) (supervised by Natalia Arkhipova) "Financial innovations in the modern world"

Link to connect:

https://zoom.us/j/96394297410?pwd=eE50SU9yeTVVMk5HUkVESVJvMi9nZz09

No. 2021-104 On January 27, 2021 at 16.20

An online meeting will be held (Zoom platform).

Reports:

"The influence of financial innovations on the sustainability of a commercial bank in a crisis period"
Speaker: Stepan Repin student, National Research University Higher School of Economics (supervisor Natalia Dyachkova)

"The relationship between credit ratings and the financial condition of the bank"
Speaker: Anna Ermilova student, National Research University Higher School of Economics (supervisor Natalia Dyachkova)

"Improvement and implementation of financial innovations in banking"
Speaker: Bayaman Toksonbaev student, National Research University Higher School of Economics (supervisor Natalia Dyachkova)

"Trends in the development of mobile applications of banks in Russia and the world"
Speaker: Ivan Druzhinin student, National Research University Higher School of Economics (supervisor Natalia Dyachkova)

Link to connect:

https://zoom.us/j/96394297410?pwd=eE50SU9yeTVVMk5HUkVESVJvMi9nZz09